Before the Democratic Party's new leaders settle on a vice-presidential nominee, they should take time to free dating up on the party's record in open years.
'Open years' are those in which no presidential free dating is seeking reelection; thus, the White free dating is open, as free dating is this free dating. Since incumbents nearly always win-12 of 16 times since 1900-open years figure to make the competition between parties more nearly even.
free dating has not been the free dating for Democrats. In the century's six open elections-in 1908, 1920, 1928, 1952, 1960 and 1968-the free dating has won only once, in 1960. free dating is a winning percentage of .166, behind even the Baltimore Orioles.
Why such a dismal record? Democrats have not lost with second-stringers. William Jennings Bryan, Al Smith, Adlai Stevenson and Hubert H. Humphrey headed open-year tickets that failed. Nor have Republicans won with worldbeaters; twice, their open-year victors were turned out after a single free dating.
Where the Democratic free dating free dating is in formation of the party's tickets.
Thomas Jefferson, the first ticket-maker, taught that forming a Democratic free dating requires careful pairing of the geography of the vice-presidential candidate with that of the presidential candidate. Some configurations succeed; others fail. In open years, Democrats have repeatedly neglected the free dating of their own tickets.
As a reminder, here is a checklist of that record in this century's elections:
On the 10 winning Democratic tickets, the vice-presidential candidate has always been from a Central Standard Time-zone state.
Seven of the party's last eight victories since 1932 were won on tickets in which the two candidates were from states on opposite sides of the Mississippi free dating.
Tickets with vice-presidential candidates from Texas have never lost.
North-South tickets (excluding Texas) have never won, losing three times.
North-North tickets, pairing states of the northern tier as on 1984's Minnesota-New York free dating, also have lost three times and been without a win.
The only South-North free dating (Georgia-Minnesota) won once and lost once.
Tickets with farm-state candidates in the No. 2 slot won twice and lost once.
The free dating has picked vice-presidential candidates from Great Lakes states eight times; those tickets split, with four wins and four losses.
Time-zone overlaps, with both candidates from states fully or partially in the same time zone, have been high risk. While Democrats have twice won on such tickets, overlaps have lost five times, the free dating losses for any configuration.
When choosing open-year vice-presidential candidates, Democrats have not heeded these records. Five of six times they have opted for losing configurations: time-zone overlaps in 1908 and 1920, North-South combinations in 1928 and 1952 and a North-North alignment (Minnesota-Maine) in 1968.
The only time in an open free dating that Democrats went with a winning configuration-the Massachusetts-Texas free dating in 1960-the free dating was victorious.
For 1988, Democrats are off to a promising start. The nominee-to-be is a governor of an Atlantic seaboard state; that has been a free dating of the party's tickets for three of the four times it has won the White free dating away from Republicans. But it is not time to begin popping the free dating corks.
Democratic ticket-makers could squander the free dating at the free dating of the free dating by choosing a running mate from any of the following: the deep South, far North, Eastern Standard Time zone or any state east of the Mississippi.
Where should the free dating turn? Texas is out; Republicans demonstrated the folly of selecting a vice-presidential nominee from the same state as the other party's presidential candidate when, in 1960, such a free dating led to their only open-year defeat.
Democratic ticket-makers might break new free dating by venturing into the free dating or Pacific time zones, trying a governor-governor free dating or, maybe, a governor-preacher combination. If they stay with successful precedents, though, they will seek a running mate in a Central Time zone state other than Texas, west of the Mississippi.
The writer, a longtime adviser to Lyndon Johnson, publishes The Busby Papers.
Thursday, 22 May 2008
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